Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25

Q4 2024 update

The global advertising market is on track for a major leap, with ad spend expected to rise by 10.7% this year, topping $1trn for the first time. This represents a 0.2pp upgrade from our August forecast, while the incremental rise of $104bn this year would be the second-largest on record.

Looking forward, this upward trend is set to continue. By 2026, global ad spend is projected to hit $1.24 trillion - an 80% increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Key themes outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 update are:

• Google's 90% share of search market is a monopoly, DoJ rules: One in five dollars (22.1%) spent on ads outside of China is paid to Google; DOJ ruling now threatens $32.9bn of potential growth over the next two years
• Holidays are coming: Retailers are due to spend $46bn this holiday season, though online platforms such as Amazon ($16.9bn in holiday-season ad revenue) are set to be the biggest winners.
• Canada calls time on TikTok: There are few signs that advertisers are reining in their TikTok budgets; we believe TikTok’s ad billings grew by 27.1% to $17.8bn over the first nine months of 2024, even as the prospect of tighter regulation comes into sharper focus.

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